Note: I'm going to genericize any product that lets you pay for a trip in a self-driving car as a "Waymo" for the purpose of this article. As of this writing, Waymo is a division of Alphabet (who also own Google). Although Waymo (the company owned by Alphabet) is clearly leading in self-driving in the US, I am using the term "Waymo" to talk generically about self-summoned self-driving vehicles.
I think Waymo is going to become commonplace far faster than people anticipate. These are some quick thoughts I have on it that I would love to be challenged on.
Car Ownership is Already Unaffordable to Most
The average car in the US is currently $49,000. No US carmaker currently makes a car under $20,000. The average monthly car payment is $772 for new and $570 for used. There were 3 million repossessions and 10.5 million repossession assignments in 2025. This is a country of 350 million.
These numbers are just not sustainable. If your car is repossessed, you cannot get credit for the next car. You probably can't even afford to repair your other car. When these things happen, you have the cold calculus of either losing your job or figuring out some other way to get to work.
Given this, it is better to use a ride-sharing service and keep your job and benefits than to lose your job. I think American car companies are cannibalizing themselves by targeting the rich and those who aren't good at math by only offering luxury products ($70k trucks!).
They will drive people to try out and then acclimatize to self-driving at a rate that is far greater than our "open road" American mentality projects. We associate having our own car as "freedom" in the states, but those romantic notions will quickly fall to the side when you are worried about losing your health insurance.
There is a Growing Elderly Population
America is getting older. There will be more Americans over 65 than children under 18 by 2034 according to the Census Bureau. Many older people cannot (or do not want to) operate a motor vehicle. A Waymo or Uber is the only non-compromising option for getting around in much of the US. You can theoretically take the bus or some other public transit, but in much of the US this is not a great option for anyone who can afford otherwise. Waymos give the elderly the autonomy and flexibility that they want without requiring them to manually operate the vehicle.
I think autonomous vehicles will radically improve road efficiency
A vehicle that can go into self-driving mode (or autonomous directed driving mode) will be able to park a car with a density that only a skilled valet could usually perform. It will be able to avoid the "caterpillar" patterns in road congestion. It will never waste time by being distracted on its phone at the light. It will understand how and when to do a zipper merge... The list just goes on. Even low-level penetration of "polite, law-abiding" Waymos on the road will result in much easier traffic for the rest of us. It will mean that there will always be a car that is obeying the speed limit (which will effectively enforce the speed limit as the lead car). It will mean that some Waymo will end up stopping for the light rather than running the yellow.
I skeptically believe that autonomous vehicles are much safer
There is a huge marketing department attempting to convince you of the safety of self-driving. It is somewhat difficult to separate the PR from the truth. With that said, the apparent rate of self-driving accidents seems to be radically lower than average accident rates. As these become regulated and safety measurements come out at scale, it will eventually become evident that having a machine driver is substantially safer than an average human. This will probably result in legislation in multiple settings that encourage the adoption of self-driving for safety reasons (MADD, school dropoff/pickup zones, etc).
Seems that Young drivers don't value it the same
I am meeting more and more young (20-something year olds) who still do not have driver's licenses. Could just be sampling, but it seems like many younger people do not regard driving as the rite of passage that it once was.
Autonomous Driving is far Cheaper than Human Driving
A Waymo I-PACE is estimated to be around $120-150k. This cost will drop substantially in the future (it is just tech), but a human being will still need to draw some minimal wage to drive for Uber. I've heard that Waymos run for approximately 22 hours a day in some cases. A Waymo can be paid for over a full and entire day of work. No need for restrooms. No meal breaks. No sick days. No sleep. Nevermind the benefits and profit sharing that an Uber driver needs to exist.
I think the economics are such that Uber driving will disappear very quickly when they have to compete with Waymos. The real number is not only amortized vehicle cost, but taking the human out of the equation is going to be a huge savings on the cost in general.
There will be lots of competition
At this time, in the United States, Alphabet's Waymo has a substantial lead on all competitors in the self-driving ridesharing space. I hear that China also has impressive ridesharing as well, but it is very hard to get reliable verified news out of China. I think self-driving is immensely challenging, but I don't believe it is insurmountable. I think (Alphabet) Waymo's self-driving technology will be developed by competitors. When this happens the unit economics of offering a self-driving vehicle will just be irresistible. There are going to be a lot of providers offering really cheap self-driving services. Competition will lead to price wars.
Tesla just got a TX license in August. Zoox has launched commercially. Plus all these Chinese players.